学术研究
陈先才:《“台独”风险》,九州出版社,2020年1月版。
时间:2020-03-30 浏览次数:202

民进党2016年在台湾地区重返执政后,关于“台独”风险的相关讨论越来越多,其原因就在于人们对蔡英文执政下的两岸关系深感忧虑和不安。蔡英文当局拒不接受“九二共识”,破坏了两岸关系和平发展的政治基础,从而使两岸关系及台海局势的发展充满极大的变数和隐患。本书剖析了“台独”的主张及其分离主义的本质,围绕民进党重返执政后的“台独”风险为主线,分析了“台独”风险的表现形式、类型划分及其影响,并在此基础上,分析了美国支持“台独”势力的相关风险及其后果。本书认为,随着中国大陆实力的显著增强,大陆主导台海局势的能力大为增强,也从根本上抑制了“台独”势力的冒险冲动,以及降低了美国介入台海局势的意愿。


前 言·····························································································1


第一章 两岸风雨七十年····································································3

  第一节 海峡两岸隔海对峙 ······························································3

  第二节 海峡两岸长期对抗······························································7

  第三节 两岸民间重启交流···························································· 14


第二章 何为“台独”?·································································· 20

  第一节 “台独”的出现及其主张····················································· 20

  第二节 “台独”的类型划分··························································· 24

  第三节 “台独”的发展阶段··························································· 31


第三章 “台独”最新发展及其影响····················································· 47

  第一节 “台独”发展的最新态势····················································· 47

  第二节 “台独”风险及社会影响····················································· 53

  第三节 未来“台独”势力的发展趋向············································· 58


第四章 美国打“台湾牌”及其风险··················································· 63

  第一节 美国长期打“台湾牌”························································ 63

  第二节 特朗普打“台湾牌”的频率升高·········································· 72

  第三节 美国频打“台湾牌”的风险················································ 76


第五章 大陆为何反对“台独”?······················································ 79

  第一节 中华民族“大一统”思想根深蒂固······································· 79

  第二节 台湾问题是中国的核心国家利益 ··········································82

  第三节 在中华民族伟大复兴进程中实现国家统一······························ 85


第六章 “台独”风险的表现形式························································ 88

  第一节 台湾内部引发的风险························································· 88

  第二节 外部介入引发的风险 ·························································94

  第三节 两岸互动引发的风险························································100


第七章 台海两岸军事对抗态势························································104

  第一节 台海军事战略对抗···························································104

  第二节 台海军事战略对抗的外部推力············································108

  第三节 两岸军事实力对比态势 ···················································· 111

  第四节 台海军事态势的基本特征·················································· 116


第八章 “台独梦”对撞“中国梦”·····················································121

  第一节 中国共产党提出“中国梦”·················································121

  第二节 “台独梦”的困境·····························································128

  第三节 “中国梦”与“台独梦”的对撞···········································132


第九章 “台独”风险的类型与危害····················································134

  第一节 低度风险·······································································134

  第二节 中度风险·······································································136

  第三节 重度风险·······································································139


第十章 民共为何缺乏互信?···························································143

  第一节 为何没有民共关系?························································143

  第二节 民共有哪些分歧?···························································145

  第三节 民共缺乏有效沟通管道·····················································147


第十一章 美国为何靠不住?···························································149

  第一节 台湾民意为何不相信美国? ···············································149

  第二节 美国是靠谱的主吗?························································151

  第三节 台湾从来就不是美国的核心利益·········································156

  第四节 中国崛起降低美国介入的意愿············································159


参考文献·······················································································164

后 记··························································································167


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